Wisdomly
Nº 234Money & Investments

The tulip crash you've heard of is mostly a 19th-century joke

Most of what people cite as proof of market madness in 1637 traces back to satire written to mock the speculators, not to the actual trades.

Tulip mania has been the go-to parable for financial insanity since 1841, when Scottish journalist Charles Mackay retold it in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Mackay's version is vivid: fortunes staked on single bulbs, a sailor jailed for eating a bulb mistaken for an onion, a whole society gripped by tulip fever until the market for tulip futures collapsed and ruined thousands.

The trouble, as economists have shown since the 1980s, is that Mackay was working from an 18th-century summary that itself drew almost entirely on a satirical pamphlet called Dialogues between Waermondt and Gaergoedt, written shortly after the crash specifically to mock speculators — not to document what actually happened. Economist Peter Garber later dug up real transaction records: 161 sales across 39 bulb varieties between 1633 and 1637. The data is patchy and inconsistent, comparing forward contracts to spot sales to notarized deals, but it shows nothing like a nationwide economic catastrophe. Most of the trading was confined to a narrow circle of specialized florists and merchants, and when contracts stopped being honored after the crash, Dutch cities mostly resolved the disputes through arbitration rather than mass ruin.

The crash was real. The apocalypse wasn't. What survived instead was a much better story — one clean enough to explain any bubble in one sentence, which is exactly why nobody bothered to check it for a hundred and forty years.